As the federal Liberals prepare to choose Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's successor, another Liberal leadership race begins this week in Quebec.

The race for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) officially gets underway on Monday, and it's sure to generate some excitement.

The stakes are high for the Quebec Liberals, who have been living in a political desert for years due to low popularity among French-speaking voters. Candidates and observers say the party must broaden its appeal beyond the island of Montreal if it is to have any chance of forming government after the 2026 provincial election.

The QLP leadership race will take place in the shadow of the one taking shape in Ottawa. Candidates to succeed Dominique Anglade, who resigned as leader in November 2022, will have to distinguish themselves from a federal party in crisis.

"Let's be realistic," said Concordia University political analyst Karim Boulos. It's not a good time to be liberal."

The PLQ is the province's oldest political formation and the party that has spent the longest time in power. However, the Liberals suffered their worst defeat in decades in the 2018 election that brought François Legault and his Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) party to power. They suffered an even greater setback in 2022.

The party currently holds only 19 of the 125 seats in the National Assembly, mainly in the greater Montreal area. The concentration of Liberal voters in the metropolis has enabled them to retain official opposition status.

"The Quebec Liberal Party is at a crossroads," says leadership candidate Charles Milliard, former CEO of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec (FCCQ). The party needs a breath of fresh air and a generational renewal."

Pablo Rodriguez, who has held several ministerial portfolios in Ottawa, announced his candidacy in September.

It's now unlikely that another Ottawa heavyweight, federal Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne, will make the leap into provincial politics, as he plans to run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) to succeed Justin Trudeau.

Another former federal cabinet minister and ex-mayor of Montreal, Denis Coderre, is a candidate for the PLQ's top job. Marc Bélanger, a tax lawyer, has also announced his candidacy.

A fifth candidate, Frédéric Beauchemin, MNA for Marguerite-Bourgeoys, has reportedly given up his dream of becoming PLQ leader. Two sources told The Canadian Press that he would announce on Monday that he would withdraw from the race to support Mr. Rodriguez. He was the only member of the National Assembly to have announced his candidacy.

Charles Milliard, 45, believes the PLQ needs to move away from identity issues, including secularism and language, which have been focal points of the Legault government. He plans to run a campaign focused on healthcare, education and public finances.

"The Quebec Liberal Party is the only political party in Quebec that can speak to all Quebecers," he maintains. In recent years, the CAQ and Parti Québécois have shown that they can be prone to division."

However, the Liberals struggled to develop a convincing response to the CAQ, which positioned itself as the party of the economy, a terrain historically occupied by the Liberals.

The party, which has been without a permanent leader since 2022, has yet to capitalize on the Legault government's recent drop in popularity in the polls. Instead, it's the Parti Québécois (PQ) that has been on a roll for over a year.

Danielle Pilette, associate professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), stressed that the party must "re-establish Quebec's Liberal trademark" as the best option for managing the economy, particularly in the face of President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats in the United States.

According to Karim Boulos, Quebec's federalist Liberals will also have to capitalize on current nationalist sentiment in Quebec. " The reality is that you wouldn't be elected today in Quebec if you said you were a hard-core federalist," he points out.

Yet Mr. Milliard is a political novice who considers himself a "nationalist first". He asserts that Quebec "wins when Canada works well". The Quebec Liberal Party, he says, is both nationalist and federalist.

Pablo Rodriguez may be considered the favorite in the race, but he too has a few crosses to bear. He could be seen as another federal Liberal, and one from Montreal.

"Is he capable of triggering a major movement in the regions?" wonders Ms. Pilette.

Mr. Rodriguez, who declined an interview request, will also have to deal with the baggage of nine years of a federal Liberal government that is now deeply unpopular. In November, Frédéric Beauchemin even accused him of being part of a government "that spent like drunken sailors".

Mr. Beauchemin has apparently since changed his mind.

Both Rodriguez and Milliard have support within the Liberal caucus, but Charles Milliard has considerable support from the party's youth wing.

Of all the candidates, Mr. Rodriguez probably has the best chance of becoming premier, judges Karim Boulos. " But first he has to convince the provincial Liberals, and that's the challenge," he adds.

Denis Coderre, the first to announce his candidacy in June, found himself embroiled in controversy due to his well-publicized run-ins with the IRS, to whom he owes around $400,000. In a December Facebook post, Coderre said his tax problems would be resolved by January. He also did not respond to interview requests from The Canadian Press.

To date, no women have announced their intention to enter the race, which will end in June with the election of a new leader.

Marc Tanguay has been interim leader of the PLQ since Dominique Anglade resigned in November 2022.

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With information from journalist Stéphane Blais

Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press