Fred, the groundhog from Val-Espoir on the Gaspé Peninsula, has stepped out of his burrow to make his annual February 2 prediction. According to tradition, if he sees his shadow, the cold season will last another six weeks. If, on the other hand, the animal doesn't see its shadow, we can expect an early spring. 

Although this is a nice way to celebrate spring's imminent arrival, it's no guarantee of success. In fact, the friendly rodent and his compatriots Fred, Wiarton Willie, the albino groundhog from Ontario, Sam from Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia, Woodstock Willie from Chicago and the famous Phil, from Punxsutawney in the USA, have fairly low success rates when it comes to their predictions. 

Over the last three to four decades, they've had a success rate of just 37%, according to the Canadian Encyclopedia. 

Last year, Fred was found lifeless, shortly before making his long-awaited prediction. A child had predicted that winter would be longer. This year, the tradition continued with a new groundhog.

On this Sunday, February 2, 2025, the animal has seen its shadow, which means we'll have to keep our warm clothes on for at least another six weeks. 

European origins 

According to the Canadian Encyclopedia, European beliefs link the awakening of hibernating animals to the end of winter. European settlers, particularly the Germans, are said to have brought this belief with them.

Seeing that groundhogs were widespread in America, settlers quickly relied on them to predict a prolonged winter or an early spring.

This tradition began in 1887 in Pennsylvania, USA, with its adorable rodent, Phil. In Canada, groundhogs with the gift of prediction began to appear everywhere. Some ten communities in Canada are now participating.

These predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. In recent years, the success rate has fluctuated between 30 and 40 percent.