If a Provincial Election Were Held Now, the Quebec Liberal Party Could Reclaim Soulanges

If a provincial election were to take place at this moment, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) might regain control of the Soulanges riding. This is according to the latest update from the Qc125 platform, which tracks probabilities of electoral victory.

According to Qc125, if an election were held on December 8, the PLQ’s chances of winning in Soulanges would stand at 45%, compared to 38% for the CAQ. Meanwhile, the Parti Québécois (PQ) would have a 14% chance of victory.

In terms of voting projections, the CAQ and PLQ are tied at 26%, while the PQ, the Quebec Conservative Party (PCQ), and Québec Solidaire (QS) follow with 24%, 12%, and 9%, respectively.

The CAQ’s decline across Quebec can partly be attributed to its deficit budget. According to Qc125, if elections were held on December 8, the CAQ would fall to the position of the third opposition party, securing only nine seats in the National Assembly.

The PQ is projected to form the government with 70 seats, while the PLQ would claim 31, QS eight, and the PCQ seven.

What About Vaudreuil?

A long-standing Liberal stronghold, Vaudreuil’s likelihood of returning to its Liberal roots is pegged at 99% by the Qc125 platform.

As for voting projections, the PLQ is ahead with 42%, followed by the PQ at 20%, the CAQ at 16%, the PCQ at 12%, and QS at 7%.

In the 2022 general election, Marie-Claude Nichols was re-elected for a third term under the Liberal banner with 34.2% of the vote. However, a conflict within the party led to her decision to serve as an independent MP for Vaudreuil.

Are you surprised by these results? Do you believe the data projected by Qc125 accurately reflects the political reality in the region?